Volume 17, Issue 4 (2-2024)
مرتع 2024, 17(4): 498-512 |
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Fakhimi E, Khodagholi M, Yosefi S, Saboohi R, Shirmardi , H A, Ghatreh S. Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on the Present and Future Habitat Rangelands of Artemisia aucheri Boiss Species in Pasture Habitats of Central Zagros, Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari Provinces. مرتع 2024; 17 (4) :498-512
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1147-en.html
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1147-en.html
Elham Fakhimi 
, Morteza Khodagholi , Saleh Yosefi , Razieh Saboohi , , Hamzeh Ali Shirmardi , Saeid Ghatreh
, Morteza Khodagholi , Saleh Yosefi , Razieh Saboohi , , Hamzeh Ali Shirmardi , Saeid Ghatreh
Research Division of Natural Resources, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Shahrekord
Abstract: (258 Views)
Background and objectives: Understanding the impact of climate change on plant species distribution is crucial for effective rangeland management and conservation. Climate change often results in shifts in the geographic rangelands of plant species, altering their tolerance and propagation zones. To study and mitigate the consequences of climate change on potential habitats of plant species, species distribution models are employed due to the complexity of natural ecosystems. In this study, the current and projected future habitat rangelands of Artemisia aucheri species in Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari province for the year 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were investigated using the logistic regression model.
Methodology: First, the map of the presence and absence of A. aucheri species was prepared from the updated map of the country's ecological zones plan. And based on field visits and observations while modifying the map, the occurrence points were collected. In order to prepare a prediction map of the current and future range of the selected species, the statistical method of logistic regression was used. For this purpose, 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables (slope, aspect, altitude) were entered into the logistic regression model as independent variables and species presence and absence variables as dependent variables and the corresponding equation was obtained. After ensuring the efficiency of the model for predicting the geographic distribution of the selected species in 2050 by the general circulation model MRI-ESM2-0 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the results were converted into a map in ArcGIS 10.5 software.
Results: Based on the results, among the bioclimatic and topographical variables, only temperature-related indices including BIO1 (annual temperature), BIO7 (annual temperature range) and BIO10 (average temperature of the hottest month) were identified as effective on the distribution of A. aucheri species. The values of the temperature indices will increase as the climatic conditions become more difficult under the RCP8.5 scenario, and as a result, the level of suitable habitat (probability of occurrence above 75%) of A. aucheri species will decrease and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the habitat of the species will be moved to higher altitudes by 120 and 170 meters, respectively.
Conclusion: Climate change-induced temperature increases are expected to alter the vegetation rangelands of A. aucheri species, pushing it towards higher altitudes. Consequently, the lower and upper limits of the species' vegetation rangelands (1800-2600 meters) are projected to shift over the next three decades.
Methodology: First, the map of the presence and absence of A. aucheri species was prepared from the updated map of the country's ecological zones plan. And based on field visits and observations while modifying the map, the occurrence points were collected. In order to prepare a prediction map of the current and future range of the selected species, the statistical method of logistic regression was used. For this purpose, 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables (slope, aspect, altitude) were entered into the logistic regression model as independent variables and species presence and absence variables as dependent variables and the corresponding equation was obtained. After ensuring the efficiency of the model for predicting the geographic distribution of the selected species in 2050 by the general circulation model MRI-ESM2-0 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the results were converted into a map in ArcGIS 10.5 software.
Results: Based on the results, among the bioclimatic and topographical variables, only temperature-related indices including BIO1 (annual temperature), BIO7 (annual temperature range) and BIO10 (average temperature of the hottest month) were identified as effective on the distribution of A. aucheri species. The values of the temperature indices will increase as the climatic conditions become more difficult under the RCP8.5 scenario, and as a result, the level of suitable habitat (probability of occurrence above 75%) of A. aucheri species will decrease and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the habitat of the species will be moved to higher altitudes by 120 and 170 meters, respectively.
Conclusion: Climate change-induced temperature increases are expected to alter the vegetation rangelands of A. aucheri species, pushing it towards higher altitudes. Consequently, the lower and upper limits of the species' vegetation rangelands (1800-2600 meters) are projected to shift over the next three decades.
Keywords: Species Distribution Modeling, Habitat Suitability, Bioclimatic variables, Climate change scenarios
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2022/06/8 | Accepted: 2024/02/25 | Published: 2024/02/29
Received: 2022/06/8 | Accepted: 2024/02/25 | Published: 2024/02/29
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